Alex Peek blog

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Friday, March 10, 2017

Macroeconomic predictions

I believe that society should do a better job monitoring economists on how accurate their predictions are. I think it would be useful if there was central registry for economists to make predictions about individual statistics in the future.


What tools should a macroeconomist use for predictions? I think the best predictions in the short term would be based on mathematical models but predictions further into the future would rely more on judgment calls. Predictions far into the future (such as ten or thirty years) would require knowledge about new technologies, future political institutions, future consumer demand and the evolution of society. This is why macroeconomics is so difficult.


I think this test would reveal which theoretical systems are most effective for macroeconomics. Maybe economists who specialize in economic history would perform the best. Maybe the econometricians would perform the best. I'm not sure who would produce the most accurate predictions, but I think this would be a productive exercise for macroeconomists.



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